The further we go back in civilized history the more that we can observe a natural caste system of governmental power. In order, the original power-holders were: 1. the military; 2. civilian government; 3. business; 4. the civilians. Because each power-layer . . . (except 1.) is much more sizeable than the one above it, then the number of highly intelligent individuals within each layer, newly created each generation by random genetic mixing, is larger than the number in the layer above it. Thus, unless each caste can maintain its leadership in one artificial way or another — such as parental choice of marriage partners in the Hindu caste system has been successful for a long time so far — then, ulitmately, it will be overthrown.
In the modern civilizations of today — those of the advanced nation-states — civilian governments have already overthrown the military. Thus 18.104.22.168 has become 22.214.171.124. In Western Europe and America, for example power has clearly moved from the military to the civilian in relatively recent times — in Europe, two centuries ago, in America, just over one century ago.
In the less developed countries, there is still great ambiguity between the two top castes. In the most advanced of these, China, the changeover has only been active in the last 50 years, but it looks as though Xi Jinping’s presidency of today has been the first in which the power struggle has not been needed to take place anew. He has clearly inherited supremecy over the army rather than having had to re-establish it. In African and South American countries, however, the changeover is far from settled yet in any of them. In the Muslim countries the changeover to 126.96.36.199 has already clearly taken place though the civilian power over the military is in the form of its synonymous partner, religion. In those countries it is both the 3. and 4. layers who are trying to overthrow the 2. layer.
As regards power-change between business and govenment as top dog in the advanced countries, the issue is still being fought over, although it’s fairly clear now, in contrast to a century or so ago, that business organisations today are able to recruit many more intelligent individuals than governments (that is, either politicians or civil servants). Thus it’s not surprising that governments are losing some of the power they used to have and business is gaining. Governments used to be able to open anybody’s mail or listen into anybody phone calls. Today, they can’t — or at least nowhere near as freadily as they used to.
A good example of the loss of power is the present stand-off between the association of Google + Microsoft + Apple + Yahoo against the American government regarding the issue of the privacy of communications. The NSA in America and GCHQ in this country are trying to insist on reading all encrypted communictions, but so far have been resisted and probably will continue to be. As time goes on and technology became even more complex then the balance will swing decisively against the governments. The original caste system, of 188.8.131.52, having already become 184.108.40.206 will then become 220.127.116.11.
As to the last remaining changeover, the battle has only just begun. Business still has predominant power over customers, though the saying “the customer is king”, only fully appreciated so far by small business, is gradually dawning on the largest companies as customers start chalking up victories — for example, the recall of massive numbers of defective parts of goods, boycotts of certain goods, or class action in the courts. And this will be as nothing in the coming years on the internet when world-wide customers will be able to pronounce instant life or death on new products. It’s also the case that individual hackers or small groups of them — advance guards of ordinary customers, if you like — are penetrating the electronic systems of whatever power level they like — whether business, governmental or military. Because groups of hackers are often anonymous, even between themselves, and use encryption, then all the other power layers will ultimately be defenceless. The original caste system of 18.104.22.168 will have then have completely reversed to 22.214.171.124.
It would be interesting to see whether the various caste systems correspond to social structure and habitation. The 126.96.36.199 order of hunter-gatherer man and, indeed, the feudal system of Europe or the civilization of Emperor Qin of China took place with the population spread all over the countryside. The 188.8.131.52 order and, further, the 184.108.40.206 order, took place as people moved from the countryside into the towns and later into large cities — indeed, very large cities of today. Countrysides have become almost completely deserted except for the habitations of the very rich (that is, the business, or 3. layer), some last remaining constructions of the 2. layer) or the holidays only of ordinary folk (the 1. layer). What will happen when the power-changes are complete — that is, 220.127.116.11? I suspect that the customer — ordinary people — wil have started to re-populate the countryside, becoming much the same density as when the original caste system was 18.104.22.168.
This could never happen, of course, with our present grossly over-large world numbers. But as the indigenous populations of the most advanced populations are declining fast, they’ll likely be followed by the decline of the presently massive rural populations once they have all migrated into the cities (only about half so far). The evidence so far is that the very poor will give precedence to owning and maintaining a television set (or, today, a tablet or smart phone) rather than the expense of more than one or two children. In Western Europe in the last 50 years and in China much more recently, two partners are giving precedence to the full kit of status and entertainment goods (house, furnishings, car, fashionable clothes, personal ornamentation, annual holiday) before even thinking of having children — and only one or two of those extremely expensive items.
With the exception of Africa (which might have terrible population-reduction methods all of its own — such as internal warfare and ebola-type diseases which the West either can’t or won’t attempt to arrest), world population, grossly excessive today, will have probably stabilised by 2050 and will be reducing — probably very steeply — by 2100. By 2200 or 2300 or 2400 at the latest the world population could be a mere fraction of today’s. After all, the 3. business caste, which has needed large and growing populations hitherto will have long lost its power ranking by then. A very small world population — perhaps a few score million — will still be able to take scientific research and innovation further — why not? — and have a very high standard of living. Because of its communcations facilities, it could be living and working once again in highly dispersed natural communties in the countryside — which is lovely to be in normally if you can protect yourself adequately against extremes of climate. Anthropologists tell us that commjunities are at their happiest and most stable at around 120 individuals — wherr there are no more than a dozen adult males to argue among themselves who is going to be the next leader.
Young people will still want to migrate into cities where they can find their future sexual partners and the brightest to receive further training and the sort of one-to-one tutorial relationsips that, so far, can only be given to the very brightest at the top universities or research institutions. But all of these young adults will probably want to return to community living when they decide to have a family for the sake of less hassle for themselves and also the safety of their children. Most people will probably want to re-join their parent communities and continue in the specialised jobs of their parents while the brightest of the young, having very likely changed their specialisations, or added to them while in the city, might well choose new communities to go to — or set up new ones, of course, if they’re developing a unique new business/scientific sector.
The last three paragraphs are pure speculation, of course, but they’ve been based — more accurately, launched, perhaps! — on the fundamental instincts of humans, particularly the predominant one of the personal desire for power, notably among males — and thus the establlshment of rank ordering (necessary more fundamentally still in order to make sure that the genetically weak or handicapped are not chosen as marriage partners and thus don’t pass their genes on) — and the way that the different layers of the natural caste system have switched around in the course of civilisation so far.