The new 159-page deal between Iran and America + Others to delay Iran’s proclivity towards nuclear weapons for ten years or so is going to cause ructions in the Middle East. For a start, Israel and Saudi Arabia are both deeply angry.
We can forget about the response of the Israelis. They’ll accept the situation soon enough. At the end of the day they’re rational people. Besides, they already have nuclear weapons of their own — probably miniaturised nuclear missiles that are far more advanced than anything Iran will develop for a long time yet — and can well look after themselves.
It’s Saudi Arabia that the Western world needs to be worried about — still a primitive slave-owning culture ruled by a royal family under the heel of shadowy Sunni-type Wahhabi mullahs who are as beyond the possibility of any sort of rational discussion with as, say, Kim Jong-un of North Korea.
Saudi Arabia is a primitive country America should have stomped on immediately after 9/11 when President Bush knew within hours that the 19 airplane terrorists were mainly Saudi Arabian young men led by Osama bin Laden. But Bush didn’t have the courage to do that in case of losing oil imports from Saudi Arabia on which America was then partly dependent and which could have possibly caused a recession for a year or two. Besides, the Bush family already had friendly connections with the bin Laden family and some of SA’s leading royals.
Saudi Arabia and Iran are already fighting proxy wars in Yemen and other places. Saudi Arabia enabled Pakistan to develop its nuclear industry and its production of nuclear weapons. Saudi Arabia was the chief paymaster of Al Queda in Afghanistan and the ‘poor boxes’ of thousands of SA mosques may still be doing so unofficially — as they might still be sending money to Al Queda grops in Syria, and even helping Isis also. Saudi Arabia was the chief player in last year’s over-production of oil which sent the price to an all-time low (taking inflation into account) and thus bankrupted two-thirds of the new shale oil industry in America.
The wayward phase of Iran may now be coming to an end. With a large population of well-educated young people who could develop the country significantly and continue to lead it further away from its religious domination, there is every reason why Iran should now be entering responsible nation-hood. But nothing yet has dented Saudi Arabia’s capacity to be dangerous. It could call on Pakistan for nuclear missiles — there is said to be a secret treaty between them for this purpose — but no doubt Obama will have made sure that Pakistan had better not respond.
Obama’s State Department will have thought through as many possibilities as possible but won’t have been able to anticipate everything that Saudi Arabia might perpetrate. Maybe China, which has huge oil and gas interests in Saudi Arabia will help if there are any difficulties in the same way that Russia has helped Obama in the negotiations with Iran. Perhaps though, Saudi Arabia will implode rather than create further external problems. Like North Korea, a revolution has been long due and wouldn’t do its young unemployed people any more harm than they are suffering from already. Anyway, full marks to Obama for taking the risk.